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Thursday, 26 April 2012

SP500 - quick update

Apple definitely gave the markets a massive boost. If I had to make a bet for either side I'd go short ... but that's more a guess as I don't like the steeply rising wedges that much as it makes it a bit difficult to find the proper timing. Below 15 minutes chart shows three rising wedges (the red ones) which are actually all ready to break. We might soon see 1360ish...
Regarding currencies: compared to same time yesterday the USD gained a bit of value compared to the other currencies. I still see a bit more potential for a dollar strengthening. Current holdings: short NZDUSD and GBPUSD and long USDCAD. I might get rid of USDCAD soon.

Wednesday, 25 April 2012

GBP - ready for a dive

finally my AUDUSD trade worked out after being stopped out. now GBPUSD shows a nice setup for the short side: three wedges ready to break to the downside. This however might take a while (below: two hour chart). 1.595 might be possible.
risks: the big trend lines from the daily chart in EURUSD and GBPUSD above the current price level are coming closer and closer. For GBP this line is still a bit further away at around 1.63ish. I think we will first make a dive.

In the short term the USD looks a bit stronger. Might take a long in USDCAD and a short in the NZDUSD as well.

Monday, 23 April 2012

AUDUSD - went long today

took a long position in AUD today with initial target of about 1.038ish (see 1h chart below). be aware that Australia will publish its consumer price index at 2.30am UK time. don't forget to set a stop. That's why I additionally took a short in AUDJPY as a kind of hedge position.

SP500 - increased my SPXU position

today's price move in the SP (see 5 min chart below) often indicates further falling prices. I've increased my SPXU position shortly before the market closed. The orange line above the current price level is the lower line of a rising wedge which started to build up in Aug 2011 already.

Sunday, 22 April 2012

EURUSD - nice setup for the short side

Will try a short depending on the opening (I'm already short GBPUSD). three rising wedges (1 min, 5 min and 15 min chart), which are all ready to break, indicate falling prices. Additionally other main currency pairs (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD) indicate a strengthening USD in the short term as well. And from a technical point of view the negative divergence with the RSI supports our thesis.
target: Since Friday's high is higher than last Thursday's (12 Apr) high I don't expect new lows and expect the short term downtrend we've seen in April so far to be broken. As a first target 1.31ish seems to be possible.


external news: I dont expect the french vote to have a big impact on exchange least not yet. Germany publishes data tomorrow...might have an impact. 

technical: trend lines from higher time units are usually stronger than the ones from smaller time units as more people trade in higher time units. We just broke out from the 1h trend line. so the coming move down (hopefully) might be considered as backtest of this break out. a massive trend line from the daily chart is currently above pretty close (1.335ish) to the current price level . This should be our next target soon.

So should be all set for a nice trade :)

Monday, 16 April 2012

FX Pairs with highest volume

The list below (Source: Wiki, data from 2010) shows the largest currencies. By now I'm sure the Chinese Yuan would show up in the top 10...

FX Correlations

Check out this link:

It helps to avoid additional risk and to improve your timing.

Following pairs are (based on daily price data)...

highly positively correlated:

highly negatively correlated:

not significantly correlated to any of the big currency pairs:

Sunday, 15 April 2012

FX Trading

if you are trading FX save down following link:

pay attention to the highlighted dates and set tight stops shortly before the publication dates!

Wednesday, 11 April 2012

SP500 - expecting a move up tomorrow

sold my VIX future today and bought a small position in UPRO shortly before the market closed. I could imagine that we see a positive day tomorrow again. If the upper blue line breaks I expect a larger move up...

Tuesday, 10 April 2012


We saw a nice move today. I sold my SPXU position a bit too early, but am still holding to my VIX future. I expect a tiny move to the downside to probably around 1355. At that point I might get rid of my VIX future as it expires in about a week anyway. Afterwards the market might consolidate a bit to the upside. 

Monday, 9 April 2012

SP500 - update

sold my SPXU today after the opening (big gap to the downside). However, bought it during the day again as I'm expecting the market to move down again tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a similar day with a opening gap to the downside and a slightly upwards moving market during the trading day. We will soon jump out of the blue corridor. Additionally I'm holding a VIX future which i might sell tomorrow.

Monday, 2 April 2012

SP-500 - quick update

The long trade worked out pretty well. I changed the side (bought SPXU) with a first target of 1390. Wouldn't be surprised if we see lower prices...

Sunday, 1 April 2012

Trades planned for the start of the new trading week

SP-500: In the short term I expect the SP-500 to peak at around 1424 points. that would be a gain of about 1% compared to the current level. Depending on the opening I might trade the SP-500 with the UPRO first long and once this point is reached from the short side

EURUSD: difficult to say what happens in the next two weeks. It might be a topping formation or a preparation for a break out. In the short term the short side should be limited. I expect the EURUSD at least to hit 1.3365 in the very short term. So depending on the opening I might try a long position.

AUDUSD: tricky situation, confronting patterns on different time levels. The daily chart supports a break to the downside soon. According to the hourly chart it should go down a bit further followed by a break to the upside. The 15 minute chart forecasts an upside move. I might go for the small upside move depending on the opening of the market.