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Wednesday, 30 November 2011

Investing in Greece?

As soon as NBG is above this white line I will invest in Greece again. Forget about this scenario if we see new lows.

S&P - and now?

The S&P 500 smashed all major moving averages, which usually serve as a kind of reliable resistance - at least in the short term - within one day...impressive!! Now the S&P is facing 4 major short and mid term trendlines above.
What supports my bullishness is the high volume we saw today (follow through day?), the MACD which is about to cross to the upside and the negative divergence between the MACD and the index we already saw a couple of weeks ago. Since we already passed the 61.8 retracement I actually expect a couple of quiet days to the downside.

Be ready for rising food prices!!

It took half a year to form this falling wedge. If I wasnt long already I'd do it now. This wedge will definitely play out if stock markets behave as I expect .

Tuesday, 29 November 2011

China - should break out soon!

From a technical point of view I'm bullish for China in the mid term. Stochastic indicator is in a long term downtrend, however it is about to turn up again to test this downtrend. This should lead to a break of the triangle...

Thursday, 24 November 2011

S&P - oversold levels, upside bounce expected

S&P is sitting on his 61.8 retracement. A final sell-off is possible but most indicators show a significant oversold market and 61.8 retracement level usually makes the market hold on for a while. Additionally the goal of the broken triangle is reached as well. Interesting will be to see by how much the markets will move up. I hope the former support and resistance level at around 1200-1220 will be reached and broken soon.

Tuesday, 22 November 2011

VIX and S&P oversold levels

VIX midterm Futures still forming the rising wedge. I'd still bet on a break out this week. McClellan Oscillator indicates an oversold market. However, other indicator still have some space to the downside. I hope we will see very oversold levels by the end of the week without going much lower in the S&P. I hope the 50% retracement will be a good support!!! Good luck!!

Sunday, 20 November 2011

S&P500 - still not ready to zoom up

What to expect next week. The volatility index is moving into a rising wedge which should be ready to break beginning of next week pushing the S&P a bit higher. A backtest of this breakout hopefully makes the S&P retest its 1180-1200 support line. After that we might see a slightly oversold market which then would form a nice setup for a year's end bull market rally. If the S&P dropps below the 1180-1190 support, which is also the 50% retracement, a move to the 61.8% retracement (1160) and lower would be the result. In this case we might retest the Aug/Sep lows.

There is a worst case scenario I am kind of afraid of. If an American bank will get into trouble I'm not sure if the US does have the necessary money or support to bail them out. This scenario could bring us new lows. I'm not worried about European banks as they have the necessary support.

Sunday, 13 November 2011

Potential Roadmap for SP500

People are getting more and more bullish again. Regarding the put/call ratio we are getting close to a neutral level again. Europe - Greece, Italy and Spain - will decide when markets are ready to move higher. Politicians are working on a solution for Greece. They are running through scenarios with Greece going back to the drachma. I'm pretty sure that fear will be back soon putting pressure on Italy and maybe Spain. For the next two weeks I see more of a sideway pattern before moving higher. However we won't see new lows; 1200 should be a good support. Monday might be an important day as Italy will issue new bonds...the market will be right :)

China has to decide soon where to go

Taking a look on the long term chart...China will soon make a move out of the triangle either to the up or downside. However, in the short term there is still room for about 10% up until they have to make up their mind. I'd bet on an upside move. Russia btw looks similar. Since Russia is linked to the oil price they will make a move to the upside too.

Still bullish - but with a lot of caution

The McClellan Summation Index (an indicator more for mid and long term patterns) in combination with the RSI used to spot peaks pretty reliable in the last few years. There is still a bit of space to the upside but in my point of view this is definitely limited. I'd rather see a couple of weeks to the downside or at lease a sideway pattern before we move higher.

Monday, 7 November 2011

CEG and GOOG - very bullish on both

they both will make it sooner or later and jump over this long term resistance and then booooooom!!! :)

Sunday, 6 November 2011

Trading ideas for next week

AMP: short term goal 200d MA at around 49.50 - 50
NVLS: has to break its short term down-trend first, long term uptrend is now at around 32 (latest stop)
TLAB: short-term uptrend vs. mid-term downtrend. if downtrend will break, TLAB is a reversal-candidate
CSCO: definitely a buy! right now it's in the upper range of its new uptrend-channel but is also running in a rising short term wedge. waiting for a small pullback at around its 200d MA. this however might not happen if markets are generally going up.
GNW: a buy above 7.40. there is a chance that it reaches its 200d MA at around 9 and its mid-term downtrend at around 10.
FFIV: just broke its short-term downtrend. a buy above 110.5

FIS: recently a GAP to the downside with high volume, running into a short-term rising wedge, closing gap. a backtesting of the recent lows at 23.10 very likely. a sell below 25.10
RRD: is reaching its GAP level at 16.80 after a downside GAP a couple of weeks ago. this should serve as resistance. a sell right now. a stop should be set at around 17.
MCHP: for me a good short candidate. rising wedge, huge volumes to the downside. jumped up on friday after a UBS buy recommendation.

good luck

SP500 - no big moves expected for the next week

Difficult times for trading systems. Most of the blogs indicate that the majority of the trading systems is on the bearish side right now. According to the put/call ratio the market is expecting more bad things to come. However, the ratio is already very bearish. I'm still more on the bullish side. For the next week however, I don't expect big moves. On the upside it's limited to the short term downtrend line and the neckline; to the downside the 50d MA should be a good support. If there is a surprise to come I expect it for the upside.

Tuesday, 1 November 2011


If markets behave as expected tomorrow LNC and MOS might be worth a short. LNC already broke the rising wedge. However looking at the MACD the might be more to come.