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Monday, 31 October 2011

SPY - one short trigger activated

Out of my two trading systems I use (one is based on VIX the second on the Put/Call ration CPC) one activated the short trigger:
VIX trading system: still long
Put/Call trading system: just turned short
MF Global definitely will leave some bad air in the markets in the next couple of days. As a first goal I see the area of the two support lines 1200-1230.

Tradingsystem - short trigger for SPY not yet activated

I've spent a couple of minutes over the weekend to come up with a simple trading system using the market sentiment $CPC. The idea is kind of simple. I hope I'll find time tomorrow night to explain it in a bit more detail ;) As with all trading systems this one is obviously not 100% secure but as you can see in the backtesting it has the potential to provide reliable triggers.
What you can take from this picture is that the system still suggests a long position and that the sell trigger for the S&P 500 is not yet activated...not yet. I'll keep you up-to-date.

Thursday, 27 October 2011

TWC - Times Warner ready to move lower

TWC left its best times definitely behind. Will soon test its main support at around 60. If that break...A positve market environment might delay this process.

AKAM - ready to move higher

There are many bullish charts out there right now. One I really like is AKAM. Broken down-trend was confirmed today with an up-gap and high volum. Wait for a slow-down of price action before you go long...

Follow-Through Day?

Was today the follow-through day - a break out with high volume - starting the next bull rally? The next couple of days we might see a smaller bounce back. If bounce-back will be weak with low volume then I guess the party will go on!!!!
VIX is sitting on a support, McClellan indicates an overbought market. A small pull-back is kind of likely.

Wednesday, 26 October 2011

Saturday, 22 October 2011

Market overview and trading ideas

Markets were mainly driven by Q3 earning season figures which were generally better than expected and the rescue package for the EU where people bet and hope on a positive outcome. Markets turned slightly bullish. However I expect that a lot of the hope is already priced in the markets. EU rescue won't be fixed in the next meeting it will be a rocky road.
Main stock indices:
DAX is moving between the main resistance and the 50d MA. I'm expecting a retesting of the 50d MA before we can move higher.
SP500 made it above this main resistance. A move up to the SHS neckline which is equal to the 200d MA is possible but up side is limited. I also expect a retest of the 50d MAs.
China: Shanghai Index is sitting on the 2010 low and could find a support here. Apart from that no reversal pattern yet.
Further trading ideas:
Gold: I'm expecting GLD to hit it's support at around 156.5 before it probably goes further down to test it's 200d MAs.
TBT: I expext TBT to break it's short term resistance and hit it's main trends in the mid term
Shorts: VNO rising wedge:
Long: NOK; after breaking the resistance the first goal would be around 7.10

Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Pull back in S&P expected

The market sentiment (Put-Call ratio) came back from lately negative to neutral terrain. I don't expect it to drift into positive terrain within the next days. That's why I don't expect the S&P to move up further.
That's supported by the McClellan Oscillator which indicates a slightly overbought market. The VIX is sitting on a support and is likely to bounce up although in the mid term the VIX has space to the downside.