Will try a short depending on the opening (I'm already short GBPUSD). three rising wedges (1 min, 5 min and 15 min chart), which are all ready to break, indicate falling prices. Additionally other main currency pairs (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD) indicate a strengthening USD in the short term as well. And from a technical point of view the negative divergence with the RSI supports our thesis.
target: Since Friday's high is higher than last Thursday's (12 Apr) high I don't expect new lows and expect the short term downtrend we've seen in April so far to be broken. As a first target 1.31ish seems to be possible.
risks:
external news: I dont expect the french vote to have a big impact on exchange rates...at least not yet. Germany publishes data tomorrow...might have an impact.
technical: trend lines from higher time units are usually stronger than the ones from smaller time units as more people trade in higher time units. We just broke out from the 1h trend line. so the coming move down (hopefully) might be considered as backtest of this break out. a massive trend line from the daily chart is currently above pretty close (1.335ish) to the current price level . This should be our next target soon.
So should be all set for a nice trade :)
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